Jai Siya Ram

Here’s my take—short and straight:

• What Zelensky likely means by “third war”: not a brand-new conflict, but a new phase—a broader, harder push: opening another front (e.g., Sumy/Kharkiv), heavier missile–drone saturation, and larger mobilization to force concessions ahead of diplomacy.
• Why Russia might escalate now: leverage before talks; exploit Ukraine’s manpower/equipment strain; keep constant pressure with glide bombs + cheap FPV drones while probing for weak spots in Donetsk/Luhansk.
• What would signal this “third war” is on:
  • Fresh partial mobilization or notable troop rotations.
  • Sudden frontline expansions (north/east) beyond current axes.
  • Sustained triple-digit daily drone/missile salvos, including energy grid strikes.
  • Increased use of EW and counter-battery to blind Ukrainian artillery.
• Constraints on Russia: manpower quality, artillery barrel wear, sanctions drag, and long logistics tails. They can surge but sustaining high tempo across multiple fronts is still costly.
• Ukraine’s counters: deeper-range drone strikes on Russian logistics, layered air defense around grid/rail nodes, elastic defense to trade space for attrition, and conserving brigades until Western ammo flows improve.
• Risk picture: highest near Donetsk (encirclement attempts) and Kharkiv/Sumy (fixing attacks). A new Belarus vector is less likely but can tie down Ukrainian forces.
• Bottom line: Zelensky’s warning is credible as signaling—Russia benefits from keeping the initiative. Expect weeks of intensified pressure, not an overnight strategic collapse. Outcomes hinge on munitions supply, air defense stamina, and whether either side achieves a breakthrough versus incremental gains