1. The Original QUAD (The Four)
The original QUAD remains an intact grouping with India as a core member, focusing on a broad, non-military agenda for the Indo-Pacific.
- Members: United States, India, Japan, and Australia.
- Status: The group has been institutionalized with regular meetings at the Leaders’ (Summit) and Ministerial levels.
- Focus: Its agenda is diversified, covering:
- Public Goods: Climate, critical and emerging technologies, supply chain resilience, and health security (e.g., the Quad Vaccine Partnership).
- Security: Promoting a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” through maritime domain awareness and conducting the annual Malabar naval exercises (which now include all four members).
- India’s Role: India is critical to the QUAD because its inclusion:
- Anchors the strategy across the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
- Provides demographic and economic weight as the world’s largest democracy.
- Is central to the very definition of the “Indo-Pacific.”
2. The New Grouping: The “Squad”
The new grouping that includes the Philippines is a separate, strategically focused quadrilateral framework that operates in parallel with the QUAD.
- Members: United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines.
- Nicknames: It is often informally referred to in media as the “Squad” or “Quad 2.0.”
- Focus: This group has a much more explicit maritime security and defense dimension, primarily aimed at addressing China’s increasing assertiveness and “Grey Zone” tactics in the South China Sea.
- Activities: This grouping has focused on coordinated joint maritime patrols and defense cooperation activities, particularly in the waters surrounding the Philippines.
- Reason for Formation: The U.S., Japan, and Australia are seeking to strengthen security architecture in the Western Pacific/South China Sea where the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, faces direct pressure from Beijing.
3. Why the Speculation Arose
The notion of India being “replaced” stems from a combination of factors:
- India’s Cautious Stance: India has consistently stressed that the QUAD is not a military alliance (avoiding the “Asian NATO” analogy) and has been more cautious about adopting an overt anti-China military posture due to its long, disputed land border with China and its tradition of strategic autonomy.
- Philippine’s Urgency: The Philippines has an immediate, acute need for defense alignment due to escalating maritime confrontations with China, making it a more willing and explicitly aligned partner for military cooperation in that sub-region.
- Geographic Focus: The new grouping has a localized, heavy maritime focus on the South China Sea, while the original QUAD has a far broader, region-wide agenda spanning from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific.
Conclusion:
The original QUAD (US, India, Japan, Australia) is not disbanding, and India’s position is irreplaceable due to its strategic geography and political heft. The new grouping with the Philippines is best understood as a complementary minilateral arrangement aimed at localized security challenges in the Western Pacific, rather than a replacement for India in the main QUAD structure.