Jai Siya Ram

The possibility of President Trump making a significant concession on Taiwan in exchange for a major trade deal with China has been a recurrent concern among policymakers and regional experts, especially given his transactional approach to foreign policy.

While there is no official confirmation that Trump has agreed to “trade” Taiwan, recent actions and reports have fueled this speculation.

Key Details and Context

1. The Taiwan Concessions

Reports indicate that President Trump has already taken steps that China could perceive as conciliatory gestures regarding Taiwan, the most sensitive issue in US-China relations:

• Halt of Military Aid: The Trump administration reportedly declined to approve a military aid package of over $400 million for Taiwan during the summer of 2025. This package included “lethal” systems, such as munitions and autonomous drones. While the final decision may still be reversible, the action was seen as slowing down security assistance at a crucial time.
  • Administration’s Stance: This move aligns with the administration’s preference for Taiwan to purchase U.S. weapons through Foreign Military Sales (FMS) rather than receiving them as aid.
• Limiting Diplomatic Engagement: The White House reportedly signaled to Taipei a preference that Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te not transit through New York City during an overseas trip. The Pentagon also reportedly rejected a visit by Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense for defense policy talks in Washington, D.C., instead requiring a more junior meeting in Alaska.

2. China’s Demand

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is reportedly leveraging Trump’s desire for a major economic accord to press for a monumental concession on Taiwan.

• Seeking a “Reversal on Policy”: Beijing is reportedly pushing for the U.S. to formally oppose Taiwan’s independence, which would represent a major shift from the long-standing, deliberately ambiguous U.S. policy of simply “not supporting” independence. Such a move would effectively align the U.S. with Beijing’s territorial claim.

3. Trump-Xi Meeting Details

President Trump and President Xi Jinping held a call on September 19, 2025, where they discussed trade, the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, and the leaders agreed to meet in person:

• Confirmed Meeting: The two leaders agreed to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in South Korea in November 2025.
• Other Potential Meetings: They also preliminarily agreed to future reciprocal visits, including a potential visit by President Trump to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2026.
• Call Readouts: The readouts of the call indicated “productive” progress on trade and TikTok, but Taiwan was notably absent from the public summaries from both sides, an omission that has concerned analysts.

4. Analysis of Trump’s Approach

Experts fear that Trump’s “America First” transactional policy could lead him to view Taiwan as a bargaining chip, especially as he has previously criticized the island for “stealing our chip business” and questioned the benefit of U.S. support.

• Trade Pressure: The U.S. is under pressure to secure a trade deal due to the economic impact of tariffs, particularly on the agricultural sector (e.g., U.S. soybean farmers).
• The “Silicon Shield” Concern: Taiwanese officials have voiced concern that the island could be “trade-able” and have urged the U.S. to see Taiwan as an economic partner to protect, particularly given its crucial role in the global semiconductor supply chain (the “silicon shield”).

The video discusses the reported halt of military aid to Taiwan and the associated fears that President Trump is leveraging U.S. support for the island in pursuit of a trade agreement with China.