Here’s a reasoned forecast for September 2025 U.S. nonfarm payrolls & related labor metrics, based on recent trends, private data, and analyst commentary. Treat this as a probabilistic scenario, not a certainty:
📉 Context & Base Assumptions
- August 2025 nonfarm payrolls growth was very weak: +22,000 jobs only.
- Revisions to previous months have been downward, suggesting the labor market may be softer than early data indicated.
- Private sector signals (ADP, initial jobless claims) indicate continued weakness: e.g. ADP reported ~–32,000 private sector jobs for September.
- Layoffs in September were down vs August, but hiring plans remain at historic lows (lowest in many years).
- The Chicago Fed’s real-time model suggests the unemployment rate likely stayed around 4.3 %.
🔮 Forecast: September 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls & Labour Metrics
| Metric | Forecast | Confidence / Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls (Net jobs added) | +20,000 to +40,000 | Very weak growth; possibly flat or even slight negative if further revisions or drops occur |
| Unemployment rate | ~ 4.3% to 4.4% | Likely stable or modest increase |
| Average hourly earnings | ~ +0.2% to +0.3% MoM, ~3.6%–3.8% YoY | Some moderation likely, due to soft demand |
| Labor force participation / hours worked | Slight decline in participation; average weekly hours may be flat or slightly lower | Reflects caution among employers |
📊 Implications & Market / Policy Reaction
- The weak jobs growth would further solidify expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September (or soon after), if not already priced in. Many strategists already expect a ~25 bps cut.
- A weak print could push markets more bullish on gold and other havens; downward pressure on the USD could strengthen. (When labor is weak, rate cuts become more likely, which tends to weigh on the dollar.)
- Equity markets might react with short-term volatility: a weak report might be taken positively (expectations of easing) unless it’s extremely weak.
- However, the downside risk is that very weak employment may heighten fears of recession, which could turn sentiment negative.
FXLive Insight:
Last months “NFP” was 22K and today’s expectation is around 50K, if data comes lower from last months number 22K then we can expect another rise up to $3910 and $3930 but if data comes higher from expectation around 70K, then we will see one correction up to $3810 to $3760. as per our technical study, we are expecting rise in “XAUUSD-Gold”, we prefer buy on sudden dips up to $3830 with stop loss below $3790 and expected target $3910 and $3930, rest depend on today’s number.
