Jai Siya Ram
The outcome of the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for October 2025 is scheduled to be announced shortly today, October 1, 2025, at 10:00 AM IST, by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
Since the announcement is imminent, the full, official details have not been released yet. However, based on the three-day deliberations (September 29 to October 1) and analysis from economists, here is a summary of the widely expected announcements and the key factors influencing the decision:
Expected Key Decisions and Stance
| Policy Variable | Consensus Expectation | Previous Rate (August 2025) |
| Repo Rate | Unchanged at 5.50% (The majority view is a “status quo” or “dovish hold”) | 5.50% |
| Policy Stance | Maintain ‘Neutral’ | Neutral |
| Real GDP Growth Forecast (FY26) | Retained at 6.5% | 6.5% |
| CPI Inflation Forecast (FY26) | Revised Lower (from 3.1% in August) | 3.1% |
- Repo Rate: The prevailing view is that the MPC will keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.50%. This would mark the second consecutive pause after cumulative cuts of 100 basis points earlier in the year. However, a significant minority of economists have called for a surprise 25 bps rate cut, citing very low inflation.
- Policy Stance: The ‘Neutral’ stance is expected to be maintained, which suggests the MPC reserves the right to move the rate in either direction depending on future economic data.
Key Factors Influencing the Decision
- Inflation:
- Retail inflation (CPI) has remained below the RBI’s 4% target for several months.
- The recent GST rate rationalisation is expected to further dampen price pressures, leading to a likely downward revision of the full-year inflation forecast for FY26.
- Falling food prices and a good monsoon have also been favourable.
- Economic Growth & External Risks:
- GDP growth for the first quarter of FY26 came in stronger than expected at 7.8%.
- However, new US tariffs (up to 50%) on Indian goods and geopolitical tensions pose a significant downside risk to exports and overall growth in the second half of the fiscal year.
- Policymakers are likely waiting to assess the full impact of both the GST cuts (a positive stimulus) and the US tariffs (a negative drag).
- Global Developments:
- The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve provides the RBI with some additional room to ease policy, if needed.
To get the full, official details as soon as they are released:
- Time: 10:00 AM IST (Today)
- Where to Watch: The announcement and subsequent press conference by Governor Sanjay Malhotra will be live-streamed on the RBI’s official YouTube channel and on its social media handles. Financial news platforms will also be running live blogs with continuous updates.
